Aram Capital 2026 Outlook: GCC Growth Amid Global Uncertainty

Dear Investor, Attached is the annual outlook for 2026 from Aram Capital - by Al Ramz. We hope you find it thought-provocative!   ARAM’s outlook for the year ahead is constructive and increasingly supportive. While global uncertainty remains elevated, conditions across the GCC are comparatively strong. Much of the risk facing the region appears external rather than domestic, and the moderation of U.S. recession concerns has eased pressure on regional markets. Against this backdrop, the macro environment remains broadly favorable for growth, supported by continued reform momentum and diversification progress.   In our view, the GCC is not simply growing faster, it is gradually changing its economic direction. While cyclical factors will continue to matter, the more important opportunity may lie in the region’s structural transformation and its ability to convert reform into durable economic outcomes.   We see 2026 marking a pivotal “Mid-Cycle” moment for the Gulf’s grand economic visions. We have officially migrated from the phase of glossy renderings and strategic announcements to the era of concrete deliverables, operational realities, and the inevitable friction of execution and competition.   This transition occurs against a global backdrop defined by what we term “The Great Fragmentation”, a world characterized by diverging monetary policies, fractured supply chains, and the relentless ascent of Artificial Intelligence. Yet, for the GCC, the narrative for 2026 is defined by a distinct decoupling.   In 2026, the Alpha will be generated by pivoting from “Oil Beta” to “Legislative Alpha”, focusing on sectors driven by specific government mandates rather than crude prices.   In an interesting thought experiment in the report, we stress-test a “parallel universe” where we assume that all our assumptions are inverted! A world where inflation re-accelerates, the Fed stays tight (or re-tightens) and oil shocks higher, driving global multiple de-rating, but strengthening the GCC’s fiscal/liquidity floor and shifting our portfolio from “Liquidity Rotation” to “Resilience Rotation” (energy + cash-generative defensives, minimal duration/leverage).